Comment on That Latest Poll… The Comeback starting? by Jim Monaghan

Interesting analysis by Paddy Healy
Analysis of IPSOS/MRBI Poll October October 18, 2012-10-18
Poll Disastrous for Labour— Many seats of Labour councillors and TDs in danger
The poll published to-day,18/10/2012, in Irish Times is compared to the figures from a similar poll taken in May during the Fiscal Compact Referendum campaign
The poll is subject to a probable error of + or – 3%. This means that a change of less than 3% may not be real.
When people were asked who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow, the figures for party support – when undecided voters are excluded – compared with the last Irish Times poll were: Fine Gael, 31 per cent (down one point); Labour, 12 per cent (up two); Fianna Fáil, 21 per cent (up four points); Sinn Féin, 20 per cent (down four points); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); and Independents/Others, 14 per cent (down one point).
Don’t know/undecided 33% up 5 points
Satisfied with Government 21% down 6 points (this level of dissatisfaction is exceeded only by that of Fianna Fail before the last General election)
To understand the overall change in public opinion, it is necessary to compare these figures with the outcome of the last General Election
GENERAL Election Figures FG 36.1%, Lab 19.4%, FF 17.4% ,SF 9.9% ,Green 1.8%, Others 15.4%
To-days Poll compared to General Election Figures FG 31% down 5, FF 21% up 3.6,Labour 12% down 7.4, Sinn Fein 20% up 10.1, Green 2.0 up 0.2, Others 14% down 1.4
Most changes since the General Election are now greater than the probable error of 3%. This enables firmer conclusions to be drawn.
OTHERS
Particular caution is necessary in comparing the showing of “others” in an opinion poll as opposed to a General Election. There are many local and single issue candidates on the ballot paper in a General Election. The vast majority of these have no possibility of election but they inflate the figure for others in the overall national outcome. This is not a factor in opinion polls. The figure of 14% in to-days poll for “others” is in fact very high though down 1 since last May.
Collapse of Labour Support
Taking the probable error of 3% into account the figure for the Labour Party of 12% to-day and 10% last May are essentially the same. But there is a large real drop of 7.4% since the General Election. Such an outcome in a General election would lead to a loss of large numbers of Labour seats. The Labour Party share of the vote in the 2009 Local Elections was 14.2%. There are two austerity budgets before the next local elections. A further decline in the Labour vote following such budgets would endanger the seats of many Labour Councillors. It must be remembered that even a small decline in popular support can give rise to a large loss of seats particularly for parties below 20% of the vote. The strong showing of Sinn Féin and Others is a particular threat to Labour. According to Damiam Loscher of IPSOS/MRBI: “Interestingly, Labour now draws more support from the professional classes (17 per cent amongst ABs) than any other socio-economic group. It seems working-class voters have drifted in large numbers to Sinn Féin, outside Dublin in particular” (Irish Times Oct 18,2012).
The very high level of dissatisfaction with government is likely to result in severely reduced transfers to Labour from independents and smaller parties particularly in late counts.
Fianna Fáil Recovery?
Fianna Fáil recovery is greatly exaggerated by conservative commentators. The Fianna Fáil poll rating is now just 3.6% above its General Election performance (the probable error is 3%!!). For a party now in opposition this is a very modest improvement. Conservative commentators have a vested interest in promoting a conservative alternative to the government
Sinn Féin –Strong Showing
Despite the reduction of 4% since the May poll, Sinn Féin has doubled its vote since the General Election. Sinn Féin was the most prominent party in opposing the Fiscal Compact in May. The small reduction is not unexpected in this context. A party which exceeds 20% in a general election gets a major extra seat bonus. 20% is equivalent to the quota in a four seat constituency.
Fine Gael
Though the drop of 5% since the General Election is significant, the Fine Gael vote is holding up. It is probable that all the conservative forces in society are congregating around the main conservative party—big farmers, big business, wealthy self-employed professionals, large asset holders etc. I expect this to be confirmed when fine detail of the poll becomes available.
In general the poll shows continued tendency to political polarisation—Sinn Féin and the left at one pole and Fine Gael and the political right at the other.
Paddy Healy